0
Confirmed plague
Russia to WHO
Situation desk
Russia Plague26 Tracker
Irkutsk. One death under review. Not a confirmed outbreak. As of October 8, 2026.
Unconfirmed
- Death under review
- Rodent focus, not a case
Reading
The shelf
Reported books, then one scenario, then fiction.
- ScenarioBiological War: A ScenarioAnnie Jacobsen
Interviews and records are real. The Siberian outbreak in the book is not.
- NonfictionBiohazardKen Alibek
The Soviet program, told by the man who ran it.
- NonfictionThe Hot ZoneRichard Preston
How a hot virus actually moves.
- NonfictionSpilloverDavid Quammen
Why animal infections become human ones.
- FictionThe Cobra EventRichard Preston
A bioterror novel built on real procedure.
- FictionThe Andromeda StrainMichael Crichton
A lab, an unknown organism, a closed town.
- FictionStation ElevenEmily St. John Mandel
What a society looks like after the wave.
- FictionThe PlagueAlbert Camus
A sealed city, and how people behave inside it.
1
Death under review
Cause not published
197
Contacts named
About 200 in some reports
0
Plague-positive contacts
None reported
LOW
WHO risk, Russia
Very low for Europe
0
Secondary cases
None confirmed
Movement
In and out of Irkutsk
The number is a clean read of aircraft in the air, not a passenger day. A rate limit is not zero. The usual day is the airport’s own 2025 count. Today’s timetable did not come back, so it is not invented.
Air · IKT
—
Not a count
Feed not in yet. Checking.
Usual day · takeoffs
61
Average, Jan–Sep 2025
16,753 takeoffs from January 1 to September 30, 2025, divided by 273 days. IrkutskMedia. A takeoff is one departure. It is not the aircraft count above.
Usual day · passengers
11,093
Average, full year 2025
4,048,738 passengers in 2025, divided by 365. Aviaport. Handled passengers, arrivals and departures together. No figure for today.
Today · takeoffs
—
Not on a public board
The airport page did not return a departure list. There is no today-versus-61 on the same line.
—
Irkutsk-Passazhirsky
Trans-Siberian passenger station. The long-distance board and the suburban board both sit on Yandex. Today’s pages asked for a captcha, and Russian Railways did not answer. No train count is invented.
—
Irkutsk bus station
11 Oktyabrskoy Revolyutsii Street. 19 places were named on the September 4, 2026 copy. Long-distance and regional buses. The live page asked for a captcha on October 8. The place list is the last timetable copy that could be read, dated September 4, 2026. It is not today’s departures and not a count of buses on the road. Yandex station board.
September 4, 2026. Places named, not departure times.
- Arshan
- Baykalsk
- Bokhan
- Bratsk
- Cheremkhovo
- Kachug
- Khuzhir
- Listvyanka
- Nizhneudinsk
- Sayansk
- Slyudyanka
- Svirsk
- Tayshet
- Tulun
- Ulan-Ude
- Ust-Ilimsk
- Ust-Kut
- Ust-Ordynsky
- Zhigalovo
The long-distance roads are R-255 Siberia from the west and R-258 Baikal toward Chita. There is no public vehicle counter on either.
- Long-distanceBoard not returned
- SuburbanBoard not returned
A through-train search is not the station board. Until that board answers, this desk does not list train numbers or clock times.
The live feed has not returned a reading.
Control, same feed and radius, Novosibirsk Tolmachevo: —.
Cities on the file
- Abakan Abakan AirportABA
- Bangkok SuvarnabhumiBKK
- Beijing CapitalPEK
- Bishkek ManasFRU
- Bodaybo Bodaybo AirportODO
- Bratsk Bratsk AirportBTK
- Chita KadalaHTA
- Dushanbe Dushanbe AirportDYU
- Harbin TaipingHRB
- Khabarovsk NovyKHV
- Kirensk Kirensk AirportKCK
- Krasnoyarsk YemelyanovoKJA
- Kyzyl Kyzyl AirportKYZ
- Lensk Lensk AirportULK
- Magadan SokolGDX
- Manzhouli XijiaoNZH
- Mirny Mirny AirportMJZ
- Moscow DomodedovoDME
- Moscow SheremetyevoSVO
- Moscow VnukovoVKO
- Neryungri ChulmanNER
- Novosibirsk TolmachevoOVB
- Osh Osh AirportOSS
- Tashkent TashkentTAS
- Ulan-Ude MukhinoUUD
- Ust-Kut Ust-Kut AirportUKX
- Vladivostok KnevichiVVO
- Yakutsk Yakutsk AirportYKS
Named carriers: S7 Airlines (S7), Aeroflot (SU), Ural Airlines (U6), Yakutia (R3), Alrosa (6R), Angara (2G), NordStar (Y7), Hainan (HU), Transaero, ceased 2015 (UN). 2G is Angara on these Siberia routes. The file’s name field says San Juan Airlines, a code collision. IOS, KR, SZ, YK are left unnamed because the file points them at the wrong airlines. Transaero stopped in 2015 and is still listed, which is how you know this is a snapshot.
Search themes
What Irkutsk is typing
Yandex autocomplete for the Irkutsk region, set next to Google’s daily lists. A completion is a habit of the keyboard, not a vote. The bars are Google’s weekly index for «чума» in Russia, a usual week against this week.
Yandex
—
Checking the region
Usual week
—
Before Sep 27
This week
—
Latest week
The weekly index has not returned.
Reading
Checking.
Completions that are about this
Assessment
What would move the call
Seven checks. A missing public source stays blank. It is not filled in as zero.
1 · File
What WHO and the regulator have actually said
0 days since the last official statement on this desk.
Cause of death
Not named
The regulator’s wording is pneumonia of unknown origin. WHO says the causative agent is still unknown. No assay for her has been published.
Associated Press, Oct 8, 2026Assays
Hers not published
Moscow says contacts showed no dangerous pathogen. That is not the same as publishing the test that explains her pneumonia. WHO has asked again.
UN News, Oct 7, 2026Second employee
Denied, not closed
Rospotrebnadzor called a second illness fake. WHO said it asked Russia to answer the report and has not named a second case.
Al Jazeera, Oct 8, 2026Contacts
Watch reported over
Moscow told WHO that monitoring of all contacts is finished. The regulator said more than 90 percent of about 200 had been released. The name list is not published.
UN News, Oct 7, 20262 · Weekly table
Notifiable disease, not headlines
Plague, Irkutsk oblast
Not published
No Rospotrebnadzor weekly notifiable-disease table for plague in Irkutsk oblast is on this desk. A missing table is not a counted zero.
Ordinary respiratory illness
About 16,000
A week, as reported
A press account, citing authorities, said Irkutsk oblast was seeing about 16,000 acute respiratory infections a week, 12.6 percent under the epidemic threshold for two weeks. That is not the bulletin form.
Financial News, Oct 8, 20263 · Animals and people
A rodent focus is not this death
Human plague outside the lab
0
No confirmed human plague case outside the laboratory is in the official record on this desk.
Tuva, Altai, Transbaikalia
No 2026 notice
No dated 2026 animal-positive or rodent die-off notice for these foci is in the sources used here. The map dots stay background.
4 · Notices
Agencies that issue them
WHO Disease Outbreak News
None found
WHO has briefed. That is not the same as a Disease Outbreak News item.
UN News, Oct 7, 2026ECDC
Monitoring note
October 6 news story: no secondary cases reported, no evidence of sustained spread. This is not a row in the weekly CDTR unless ECDC says so.
ECDC, Oct 6, 2026CDC travel notice
None found
The CDC director called the risk to the United States extremely low and described screening as a posture. That remark is not a travel-notice level.
Reuters, Oct 7, 2026China
None found
No statement from a Chinese health authority is in the sources on this desk.
Mongolia
None found
No statement from a Mongolian health authority is in the sources on this desk.
Health Canada
No risk to Canada
Health Canada said it is watching and sees no risk to Canada. Last recorded human plague case there was in 1939.
CBC News, Oct 8, 2026
5 · The city
Operating, or not shown
Flights listed today
Not published
The airport page did not return a departure list. An empty aircraft box is not a closure.
Rail tickets on sale
Not published
Russian Railways did not return a board, and the Yandex timetable hit a captcha.
School closure order
Not published
No oblast education closure is in the sources used here. Absence from this desk is not proof schools are open.
Hospital diversion
No
The Guardian reported visitor limits at several hospitals on October 6. That is not a citywide diversion notice.
6 · Search, with a control
«чума» against an ordinary illness word
«чума» this week
—
Usual week before Sep 27: —.
«ОРВИ» this week
—
Usual week before Sep 27: —.
Google, Russia, «чума» against «ОРВИ», one scale. 100 is the busiest week of either word in the last year. It is not a count of searches.
7 · Press against the file
Items dated October 8, 2026
Chronology items
3
Everything dated today, outlets included.
Official statements
2
WHO, the regulator, or another health agency. Confirmed plague cases did not change. Outlet: Epoch Times headline says a second death. The piece does not establish one. Regulator: Regulator calls a second illness fake Agency: Canada and the U.S. both call the risk to them low
Same skeleton as the early hospital maps. Different rule: a rumor is not a case, and a circle on this map is a watch point.
Identified
Help signals
Offers, requests for the file, and one clinical card. Remarks are marked as remarks. A rumor about suffering is not a help signal.
OfferOct 6, 2026
WHO will support Russia if Russia asks
said the agency stands ready to support the Russian authorities if they ask. That is an operational offer. It has not been described as a team already in .
Offer of assistance, conditional on a request.
UN NewsRequestOct 6, 2026
The file is the help that is blocked
said timely, complete reporting is required to clarify conflicting reports and judge the risk. Until the are public, outside clinicians cannot tell of unknown cause from a death.
Request for the information care would depend on.
The GuardianRequestOct 7, 2026
WHO asked about a second pneumonia
asked Moscow to clarify media reports of another employee with of undetermined cause. A second sick colleague would change the medical response. It is not, by itself, a second case.
Request that would change how many patients are in view.
MintOfferOct 6, 2026
A U.S. offer of help, as a remark
The Guardian reported President Trump’s line that the United States would help. , the same day, said Russia should share more and that Washington was watching hour by hour. Treat the offer as a sentence, not as a medical mission.
Sourced offer. No deployed team in the record.
The GuardianClinicalReference
What a responder can use if the rumor were true
is a caused by . Rodents are the . The usual is a flea, which produces disease, not this rumor. can spread . puts the at one to seven days. are the treatment. WHO also describes antibiotic for close of pneumonic plague. This desk has not seen a public list of who received prophylaxis in . No dose belongs on a tracker.
Clinical fact. Usable without pretending the case is confirmed.
WHO plague fact sheet
- Event under reviewIrkutsk / ShelekhovOne laboratory worker died in Shelekhov on October 2 after severe pneumonia. Official plague cases: zero. This marker is a watch point, not a case cluster.
- Background geographyTuvaA long-standing natural plague focus in wild rodents. Not a 2026 human outbreak. No dated 2026 animal-positive notice is on this desk. Human cases counted here: 0.
- Background geographyAltaiHistorical rodent focus near the Altai–Mongolia country. No dated 2026 animal-positive notice is on this desk. Human cases counted here: 0.
- Background geographyTransbaikaliaEastern Siberian natural-focus country. No dated 2026 animal-positive notice is on this desk. Human cases counted here: 0. WHO’s risk call is about Irkutsk, not a chain of outbreaks.
Adjudication
True, and false
Verified and unverified. False claims are the noise register.
True
A 28-year-old plague-institute worker, Darya Shipilova, died in Irkutsk oblast on October 2, 2026.
She worked at the and died in hospital in after severe . That death is the event. Everything downstream is about what killed her.
False
A confirmed plague outbreak is spreading across Russia.
There is no confirmed case, no reported , and an official statement that no was registered. Precautionary observation is not an curve. Drawing one would be the error this desk exists to avoid.
TrueHighWeight 3/3
A 28-year-old plague-institute worker, Darya Shipilova, died in Irkutsk oblast on October 2, 2026.
She worked at the and died in hospital in after severe . That death is the event. Everything downstream is about what killed her.
The GuardianFalseHighWeight 3/3
A confirmed plague outbreak is spreading across Russia.
There is no confirmed case, no reported , and an official statement that no was registered. Precautionary observation is not an curve. Drawing one would be the error this desk exists to avoid.
India TodayFalseHighWeight 3/3
Her contacts tested positive for plague.
The public laboratory claim is the reverse. , quoting Russian authorities: no dangerous infectious among any of the . Zero -positive contacts is the figure that belongs on the board.
UN NewsTrueHighWeight 3/3
No secondary plague case has been reported.
said identified had not shown symptoms, then relayed that of them had ended with no dangerous found. A real - introduction would be expected to show itself in close contacts within days. That signal is absent in the public record.
UN NewsTrueHighWeight 3/3
Russia has told WHO that no plague case was registered in Irkutsk oblast.
The reply, repeated by and by on October 6–7: no in her, and no plague in anyone else there. were reported negative for dangerous . WHO has not published a counter-lab result.
India TodayFalseHighWeight 3/3
This is already a COVID-scale pandemic.
dashboards filled up because infection was confirmed in place after place. Here the confirmed- column is zero, the column did not convert into cases, and ’s risk beyond is low to very low. Analogies are not data.
UN NewsFalseHighWeight 3/3
WHO has confirmed that she died of pneumonic plague.
said authorities were looking into whether was the cause. It then reported Russia’s answer: no registered. Confirmation and a verification request are opposites. Do not collapse them.
UN NewsTrueHighWeight 3/3
WHO’s working risk is low for Russia and very low for the rest of Europe.
Spoken by spokesperson on October 6: moderate to low in , low for the Russian Federation, very low for the European Region. He also said can spread — a statement about the disease, not a finding that it is spreading here.
UN NewsFalseModerateWeight 2/3
A laboratory accident has been proven.
Media raised an because of where she worked. Russian authorities have said there was no lab accident and that no work-related microorganism was found. The workplace makes the question legitimate. It does not settle it.
IBTimesFalseHighWeight 2/3
Bubonic plague is sweeping from person to person.
The rumor, when it is specific, is after a possible — lung infection, not the form, and not in the blood. None of the three is confirmed here. Bubonic is not the one that typically jumps between people. Mixing the names makes the story sound more contagious than the evidence.
WHO plague fact sheetTrueModerateWeight 2/3
Contact testing turned up ordinary respiratory viruses, not plague.
IBTimes, citing , reported two infections and two infections among , and no other infectious-disease . Useful if accurate. It is one outlet’s account of the regulator, so it sits below the readout.
IBTimesFalseHighWeight 2/3
If this is plague, nothing can be done.
is a bacterial infection, , and it is treated with . Speed matters, especially for disease. “Untreatable” is scare copy. It is not microbiology.
WHO plague fact sheetFalseHighWeight 2/3
Irkutsk is under a citywide quarantine and the death toll is climbing.
One death is documented. Restrictions were reported at the research institute and at several hospitals. A sealed city and a rising toll are not in the sourced record. Hospital rules and a municipal are different instruments.
The GuardianTrueModerateWeight 2/3
On the order of 200 people were identified as contacts, and many were observed in hospital.
Figures in circulation: 197 identified, with a large share hospitalized for observation (one accounting is 189). By October 7, reporting described most of them released. The count moved because the response moved, not because a second wave appeared.
MintTrueHighWeight 2/3
The lab sits where plague already exists in animals.
described the workplace as an institute that studies dangerous , including , “in a part of where plague occurs naturally in wild animals.” explain why the lab exists. They are not a human .
UN NewsTrueHighWeight 2/3
The official cause on offer is pneumonia of unknown origin, not a plague confirmation.
’s public wording is of , first looking like an ordinary . The agency has also said no microorganism tied to her work was detected. That is an official claim. The underlying are not public.
The Guardian
Reproduction number
R-naught and R-zero
R-naught is the spoken name of R₀. It is the average number of people one case would infect in a fully susceptible population, with no controls. R-zero is the same symbol read off the subscript. It is not a second measure. The average on each row is the midpoint of that row’s published low and high. It is not a blend of two different statistics, and it is not a forecast for Irkutsk.
DiseaseLowHighAverage
Pneumonic plaguePrimary pneumonic plague. Mukden 1946 and Madagascar 1957. Not this Irkutsk event.Nishiura et al., 20062.83.53.15
Bubonic plagueNyimba, Zambia, 2015. Includes the flea cycle. The paper’s own mean is 1.75.Sitali et al., 20201.561.931.75
Plague, Bombay 1905–06One historical outbreak. The paper’s point estimate is 1.37. Not a constant for plague.Royal Society Interface, 20161.191.611.4
MeaslesThe oft-reported range. The same paper also records values from 5.4 to 18, and a 2017 review from 3.7 to 203.3.Delamater et al., 2019121815
PertussisUnited States 1908–1917 and England and Wales 1944–1979, as cited by Delamater.Delamater et al., 2019121714.5
MumpsTextbook range cited in the 2009 review. Other methods in that table land lower.Theor. Biol. Med. Model., 200971410.5
SARSOne cited range from the 2003 outbreaks. Other papers in the same table give single estimates near 1.4 to 1.6.Theor. Biol. Med. Model., 20092.23.72.95
Influenza, 19181918 pandemic, 45 United States cities, as cited in the 2009 review. Seasonal flu is a different estimate and is not averaged in here.Theor. Biol. Med. Model., 2009232.5
EbolaSpan of the outbreak estimates listed in the 2009 review, not one study’s range.Theor. Biol. Med. Model., 20091.343.072.21
Irkutsk, 2026No reproduction number has been published. Zero plague cases are confirmed. There is nothing to average.This desk———
Unresolved
Open questions
Not scored true or false. Forcing them into either column would be the noise.
What actually killed her?
The public label is still of . has said the cause was not officially confirmed and that testing was continuing. Until an is published, “not ” and “we have not been shown the plate” can both be live.
KursivIs there a second employee with the same unexplained pneumonia?
asked Moscow to clarify that media report. On October 8 called a second illness fake. A denial is not a published , and has said it still does not know the cause of death.
CBC NewsWhy is the lab file still thin?
Precautionary can be rational while results are pending. It can also hide a result. The system exists for that distinction. and have both said the missing piece is disclosure, not another rumor.
The Guardian
Followed
The Epoch Times
World desk, kept to plague pieces. A headline that says a second death is not a second death unless the piece establishes one. Checking.
Followed
Focal Points
Peter McCullough’s desk, pulled from its feed and kept to plague pieces. Commentary. A headline here is not a confirmed case. Checking.
Sources
Reporting
Primary briefings and the outlets that carried them. Each row links out.
Oct 8, 2026The Epoch Times
Russia responds after reports of a 2nd laboratory worker deathZachary Stieber. The headline says a second death. The body says the first worker died of of unknown cause, and that reports of a second sick employee were denied. Not counted here as a second death.
Followed outlet. Headline overreaches. The reported second death is not a confirmed death.
Oct 8, 2026CBC News
Russia health officials deny reports of a 2nd plague death in SiberiaReuters via CBC: the second-illness reports are false, are cleared, and still cannot finish a fuller . Health Canada sees no risk to Canada. The U.S. CDC calls the risk extremely low.
October 8 wire: second illness denied, Canada and U.S. risk calls, WHO still short of a full assessment.
Oct 6, 2026AllSides
How left, center, and right covered the lab worker’s deathA bias roundup, not a new case. CNN (lean left) on hospital checklists. The Moscow Times (center) headlines that she died from — that is the outlet’s wording, not a published . The Atlantic (left) is an opinion piece telling Moscow to release the file. ’s line on the same page is still of unknown cause.
Coverage map, not a case. The Moscow Times headline says she died of plague. The regulator’s line on the same page does not.
Oct 6, 2026UN NewsHelp
Testing and monitoring underway in suspected Russia plague death’s Geneva briefing: the verification request, the , and Russia’s message that were clear of dangerous .
Primary WHO briefing, including the offer to assist.
Oct 6, 2026The GuardianHelp
Plague epidemic risk in Russia low after death of lab technician, WHO saysnamed, described, , , and . The most complete single narrative of the first 96 hours.
Names, quarantine, and the disclosure demands.
Oct 6, 2026CNN
Russian plague scare — what we know so farHospitalization date via Lyudi Baikala, what is known, and what the opaque response still does not answer.
Hospitalization date via Lyudi Baikala.
Oct 7, 2026India Today
WHO says no plague case confirmed in Siberia lab worker deathThe October 7 update: concluded, no registered, situation stable and still watched.
October 7 update: monitoring of contacts ended.
Oct 7, 2026Mint
No confirmed cases, no epidemic risk — latest updatesTest volume, releases from observation, and the questions still wants answered, including a possible second .
Test volume, releases, and the questions still open.
Oct 7, 2026IBTimes UK
What we know about the bubonic and pneumonic confusionWhy the two forms of are being mashed together, and ’s report of and in .
Separates bubonic from pneumonic. Cites other viruses in contacts.
Oct 7, 2026KursivHelp
Suspected plague in Russia: what we still don’t knowThe gap list: unpublished methods, an unconfirmed cause of death, and the second-patient report asked about.
The list of what is still unpublished.
Oct 7, 2026RTHK
WHO says low risk in Russia following plague reportsAFP account of Russia’s written reply: that looked like a routine viral infection, cleared, watch ended.
Adds the community-acquired pneumonia wording from Russia’s note.
ReferenceWHOHelp
Plague fact sheetBackground only, not about . Forms of the disease, how each spreads, and the fact that treat it.
Treatment and forms. Not a case report.